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Election prediction...


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MSM Hobbes's Avatar
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Distinguished Member with 6,725 posts.
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Frozen Tundra, IN - Ozarks, MO
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01-Nov-2004, 01:56 PM #1
Election prediction...
Altho' already posted in another thread, thought this deserved its own... Since we know just how well the polls really predict the winner of the prez elections , here are these well-proven means to find out who is really gonna win the election tomorrow:

1. Football - Redskins

Redskins lost last home game before the election; therefore the incumbent, Bush, loses.
Now, if you are a Kerry supporter or just anti-Bush, looks like a wrap... 70-years of predictions, Redskins lose, incumbent loses.
However, if you are a Bush supporter or are anti-Kerry, have faith - the Red Sox overcame durn near 90 years of a curse to win the World Series, beating the "best" team in MLB, in four straight games.

For more on the Redskins prediction of elections, go to: http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/election.asp

2. Dow's October Performance

Every time since 1900 that the Dow has fell by 0.5% or more, the incumbent or his party's candidate has lost. If the Dow has fell more than 0.85%, the incumbent himself has always lost too. And in the years when it has fell by only 0.26% or less, or actually rose, the incumbent prez has always won. This has held true for all of the prior 16 times an incumbent has stood for re-election.

Now, this past month's Dow industrials did fall, but at a mere 0.52%, therefore, Bush is in a grey area - for the month, the Dow fell between the 0.50% and the 0.85% points, and much closer to the former than the latter - also, the last week of the month the Dow had a quite strong rise of 2.76%.

Therefore... ???

3. Weekly Reader kids poll

http://www.weeklyreader.com/election_vote.asp

Bush was picked over Kerry by 60% of the kids.

"Since 1956, Weekly Reader students have correctly picked the president 11 out of 12 times, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history."

Of the K-12 grades, only the 10th graders picked Kerry.

4. Any others that are of a long-term nature???
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Mark Twain: "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines, Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream."

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twotugs's Avatar
Senior Member with 628 posts.
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: KC area
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01-Nov-2004, 08:36 PM #2
Apparently, Missouri usually gets it right.

http://www.showmenews.com/2004/Aug/20040814News011.asp

Quote:
Missourians have voted for the winning presidential candidate every time except once during the past 100 years.
Davey7549's Avatar
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Location: Mukwonago Wisconsin USA
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01-Nov-2004, 08:41 PM #3
Are you guys really that superstitious?
We the American people will decide! There will be debate, lawsuits, contention, and allegation but in the end we will decide.

Dave
MSM Hobbes's Avatar
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Frozen Tundra, IN - Ozarks, MO
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01-Nov-2004, 10:14 PM #4
Superstitious? Maybe, maybe not, but its mainly a point of interest at least to me... like the crap that you can find hidden things written in the Bible, etc., if you look hard enough for something you will find it - kind of like seeing a man on the moon, or canals on Mars - the human mind and eye and imagination are interesting to me in how they work, and then how perceptions guide and/or mislead humans to certain beliefs...
__________________
Mark Twain: "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines, Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream."

“I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells. Fantasy is a necessary ingredient in living, it’s a way of looking at life through the wrong end of a telescope. Which is what I do, and that enables you to laugh at life’s realities.” - Dr. Suess
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