[Flight_19]

Hi

Are the democrats taking a huge gamble by politicizing hurricane Katrina?

I think they are, just as I felt that the Republicans gambled on using sexual indiscretion as an issue when Clinton was in office. American voters are fickle and emotional, but they aren't stupid and are very likely to see some political "profiteering" rather than federal mismanagement.

Further, I have to wonder if the potential payoff is at all worth the risk of being seen as profiteers. Even if the democrats succeed in convincing people that Bush is responsible for the Katrina disaster, what do they win? Damaging a second-term president? It's like buying a million lottery tickets to win a $100 prize. It doesn't make any political sense unless it is hoped that damage to the president will help in the mid term elections. But that is a big "if" and still is a huge gamble.

If the dems fail they also give the reps a huge weapon for years to come----that is 'democrats tried to use the suffering in New Orleans for polical gains'. If the reps can make that charge stick (and there is little risk in trying, by contrast) then the dems may be damaged long-term. I think the better course of action that dems should have taken was to stay relatively quiet, rally support for the victims, then test the political waters (no pun intended) and see if America really wanted a fight on this issue. For every political ad that shows cold-hearted Republicans and federal incompetence, there will be a counter ad showing cold-hearted Democrats and poltical profiteering. Its going to be a wash anyway.

There is still a lot of this political game to be played and even though the reps are behind, they have an advantage and more cards to play IMO, while the dems have pretty much shown their hand. The dems could have rode the Iraq war, high gas prices and "need for change" right into the White House, but they seem to be going for a knockout here and now. Patience is a virtue.

Just my evaluation of the current scene. Thoughts?

[Fidelista]

Originally Posted by Flight_19

Hi

Are the democrats taking a huge gamble by politicizing hurricane Katrina?

I think they are, just as I felt that the Republicans gambled on using sexual indiscretion as an issue when Clinton was in office. American voters are fickle and emotional, but they aren't stupid and are very likely to see some political "profiteering" rather than federal mismanagement.

Further, I have to wonder if the potential payoff is at all worth the risk of being seen as profiteers. Even if the democrats succeed in convincing people that Bush is responsible for the Katrina disaster, what do they win? Damaging a second-term president? It's like buying a million lottery tickets to win a $100 prize. It doesn't make any political sense unless it is hoped that damage to the president will help in the mid term elections. But that is a big "if" and still is a huge gamble.

If the dems fail they also give the reps a huge weapon for years to come----that is 'democrats tried to use the suffering in New Orleans for polical gains'. If the reps can make that charge stick (and there is little risk in trying, by contrast) then the dems may be damaged long-term. I think the better course of action that dems should have taken was to stay relatively quiet, rally support for the victims, then test the political waters (no pun intended) and see if America really wanted a fight on this issue. For every political ad that shows cold-hearted Republicans and federal incompetence, there will be a counter ad showing cold-hearted Democrats and poltical profiteering. Its going to be a wash anyway.

There is still a lot of this political game to be played and even though the reps are behind, they have an advantage and more cards to play IMO, while the dems have pretty much shown their hand. The dems could have rode the Iraq war, high gas prices and "need for change" right into the White House, but they seem to be going for a knockout here and now. Patience is a virtue.

Just my evaluation of the current scene. Thoughts?

Your thoughts have merit in my opinion. When ever you stray too far from truth in politic---it can come back to bite in a$$. Makes no difference what you are selling. >f

[iltos]

Originally Posted by Fidelista

Your thoughts have merit in my opinion. When ever you stray too far from truth in politic---it can come back to bite in a$$. Makes no difference what you are selling. >f

well said, f

[metavoyer]

Though politics may be a reality of government landscape, IMO, there is a point of diminishing returns. Too often politics become counter productive...with all the squabbling of children on either side...it is a wonder that anyone can stay focused on any problem at hand..which currently is dealing with the truth that a region of our nation is under 10' (feet) of water and what to do to protect this from ever happening again ?. As this novella in American history plays out it will be interesting to see who ends up with the biggest bandage on their arse.

Flight19...it is indeed true that dem's should learn that vengence is a dessert best served cold.

...and Fidelista...what has politic to do with truth.?

To both of you

[LANMaster]

Originally Posted by Fidelista

Your thoughts have merit in my opinion. When ever you stray too far from truth in politic---it can come back to bite in a$$. Makes no difference what you are selling. >f

Good said.

Welcome to TSG, Flight 19.

[Flight_19]

My primary argument with the strategy is the timing and the target. The democrats have done considerable damage to the President, but it is a paper target of no real consequence. He is still a second term president and it is still a long road to the midterms. The strategy seems short-sighted and misses the big picture. And as I have noted, carries a big risk.

In addition, I don't see a whole lot of defense being put up by Republicans. This indicates to me a long-term plan and a take-the-hit philosophy for the moment and make sure they are seen handling the problem. This is something that might pay off later on down the road, I don't know. The Republican gambit being that people will look at things differently in a couple months and see democratic profiteering I mentioned earlier.

The democrats may be peaking early and might not have anything left for the stretch run. That is, what I believe the Reps are counting on. The wild card in the game is the media. Right now they are playing the democratic game, playing every sound bite they can, but could jump sides and decide that the better story is the democratic strategy itself. That is a disaster scenario for dems and a wet dream for reps.

Mike Brown was sacrifice that the reps had to make, but the quick resignation also left the dems without a real target now. I think the dems would have liked to see him stick around and force the White House to defend, but now the White House will be primarily on the attack.

As I mentioned earlier----the dems have the lead, but the reps are about to play some of those cards I think. They were sand-bagging (again, no pun intended). Can they make up the difference? I think they will, but we will see.

[GoneForNow]

The Republicans don't need to do anything, liberal Democrats have the uncanny ability to shoot themselves in the foot. They are trying to hang Bush with anything they can find partially because they were embarrassed by the loss last November (they are still shell shocked over that one) and in an attempt to make some gains in the Senate and House midterm. (In neither will it occur.) They can't grasp the fact that they have no leaders, no one with a vision of what they want America to be. The putzs they have now couldn't sell ice in the Sahara.

[linskyjack]

emmmmmm, the drunk is going through Monday! Lets see, last I saw the President had a 38% popularity rating! Only someone totally inebriated would claim that the democrats aren't going to gain seats! Listen old man, go watch the football game.

[Gibble]

To quote Sideshow Bob "Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king."

[GoneForNow]

Originally Posted by linskyjack

emmmmmm, the drunk is going through Monday! Lets see, last I saw the President had a 38% popularity rating! Only someone totally inebriated would claim that the democrats aren't going to gain seats! Listen old man, go watch the football game.

I see your A & A is acting up again. What does the President's popularity ratings have to do with the podunk election in Whogivesashat, Iowa? Absolutely nothing; as usual linsky you are so focused on your hate of Bush you continually post nonsense. As I recall you predicted a big win by Kerry! As a political pundit you're an arsewipe but everyone else posting here already knows that so please forgive my posting of the obvious.

[Flight_19]

The hurricane presents a serious problem for strategists on both sides. It is an unknown. Political strategy is no stranger to wars, economic downturns, economic booms, international relations, etc. But a natural disaster of the magnitude of Katrina has some strategists scratching their heads and having sleepless nights I am sure. How will people respond? It is unknown quantity in the long run even if short term shock and blame are predictable.

Going through the minds of the strategists on where the voters will finally end up, are two possibilities:

This was a severe hurricane at America's most vulnerable point and it was going to happen sooner or later. Mistakes were made, nobody is perfect. We did the best we could.

or

We have hurricanes all the time, why was this one not handled properly? Somebody screwed up bigtime. We want heads on a platter.

Not an easy question to answer two or three months from now, even if you think you can answer it now.