[thingamajig]

Originally Posted by Paquadez

Remembering I write on this stuff: and my raw data sources are multitudinous: and far too many to post here.

You are dodging the question

Originally Posted by Paquadez

However, if it pleases you then, hey!

I'm wrong!

My question was sincere. It pleases me neither this way or that other than a desire to know.

Originally Posted by Paquadez

Believe a rapidly failing soon to be non-government instead!

Which government and how many? Is your crystal ball for sale?

[valis]

since when did enclopedia.com become a blog?

[valis]

here's one a bit more recent:

link

Separate figures obtained by the Tories' shadow police reform minister David Ruffley showed that there had been a 21 per cent increase in the numbers of homicides in the past decade, from 609 in 1997 to 734 in 2006/07.

Over the same period, the numbers of male victims rose by 40 per cent, from 395 in 1997 to 547 in 2006/07.

There was also a 29 per cent increase in the numbers killed by sharp instruments, such as knives, from 200 in 1997 to 258 in 2006/07.

[thingamajig]

Originally Posted by valis

since when did enclopedia.com become a blog?

Good point. I am unfamiliar with the site and it is more advertising than information. So, I was a bit skeptical using it as a source - just healthy skepticism of what one finds online.

[thingamajig]

Originally Posted by valis

here's one a bit more recent:

link

While Paq claims I should ignore government reports, I general find them more reliable than the media since the media generally doesn't hire specialists on analysis. Hence I found information from the UK ministry of Justice.

From the PDF report from that statics page:

Recorded crime figures show that violence against the person has fallen by eight per cent between 2006/07 and 2007/08. Most serious violence fell by 12 per cent.

It's a lengthy report which warrants further study. From table 1.1, it appears that there is a general decrease in crime since it peaked around 1991.

[Cookiegal]

Chris,

I've been off-line since Wednesday evening with modem problems and just got back up and running about an hour ago and found out about this.

I've very sorry and saddened to hear about your tragic loss and my thoughts are with you and your family during this difficult time.

[Drabdr]

Originally Posted by Cookiegal

I've been off-line since Wednesday evening with modem problems and just got back up and running about an hour ago and found out about this.

Geez, Cookie, for it to have you down for five days, it must have been a doozie.

[valis]

Originally Posted by thingamajig

While Paq claims I should ignore government reports, I general find them more reliable than the media since the media generally doesn't hire specialists on analysis. Hence I found information from the UK ministry of Justice.

From the PDF report from that statics page:



It's a lengthy report which warrants further study. From table 1.1, it appears that there is a general decrease in crime since it peaked around 1991.

question; we can both find arguments that fit our case. Whoop de fart.

The general consensus is that violent crime is rising in London, that I know to be fact.

Regardless of that, let's stick with the presumption that we are both finding equal data to support our arguments.

And go from there, instead of all this damn hunting around for statistics that can be spun nine ways from sunday.

My original point was that you pack more people into the same geographical space, you are going to get more crime. Period. I would think you agree with that, if not, let me know.

Going on that premise, let's see if we can get this back on track wrt to the DP and it's societal ramifications.

(remember, I'm rooting for the Tide this weekend )

[thingamajig]

Originally Posted by valis

The general consensus is that violent crime is rising in London, that I know to be fact.

The general consensus has a bad habit of being wrong.

Originally Posted by valis

Regardless of that, let's stick with the presumption that we are both finding equal data to support our arguments.

Statistical measurements versus a news article or public perception- not on your life will I find these forms of data equal.

Originally Posted by valis

My original point was that you pack more people into the same geographical space, you are going to get more crime. Period. I would think you agree with that, if not, let me know.

Rates scaling with population would seam obvious. So why have the number of arrests and cases tried decreased? I've learned long ago to question the obvious. Such assumptions can come back around and bite you.

Originally Posted by valis

Going on that premise, let's see if we can get this back on track wrt to the DP and it's societal ramifications.

Without the premise, let's see if we can get this back on track ....

Originally Posted by valis

(remember, I'm rooting for the Tide this weekend )

There are no free passes in CD

[littlemar]

I just read about what happened to your sister-in-law and niece and I'm truly sorry that you and your family have to go through this much grief and pain.

[hotskates]

I just googled the name of the man that did this to get an update on the story.....it said he has a $2 million dollar bail. Do admitted murderers really have the option to meet bail and walk out of jail...surely not?

[thingamajig]

Originally Posted by hotskates

I just googled the name of the man that did this to get an update on the story.....it said he has a $2 million dollar bail. Do admitted murderers really have the option to meet bail and walk out of jail...surely not?

From the New Jersey Constitution:

10. ... All persons shall, before conviction, be bailable by sufficient sureties, except for capital offences, when the proof is evident or presumption great.

Note, as is the topic of this thread, there are no longer any capital offences in New Jersey.

How the bail is decided is defined by court rules. For murder it must be decided by a Superior Court Judge. The $2,000,000 seems high to me and probably due to the fact that it was a double murder where the "presumption is great". I've read of bails for murder as low as $40k.

[hotskates]

Originally Posted by thingamajig

. The $2,000,000 seems high to me and probably due to the fact that it was a double murder where the "presumption is great". .

Well, I'm sure he won't be able to afford a $2,000,000 bail if he can't even afford a lawyer

[Paquadez]

I'm not goint to spend time elaborating: start here:

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdf...-1898-2002.xls

And in particular note columns C, D and E: and then more critically, J.

Two crucial points: methodology of reporting has changed. Thus statistical culling differs.

Second, as earlier stated, Police no longer bother with what they term "Minor" Criminal incidents where there is no chance of apprehending the perp/s.

Clue-less, witness-less burglary as an example: and therefore the reporting incidence is reduced.

Additionally, police don't want responsibility for what they might describe as "Anti-Social Behaviour" even though, technically, this is often a crime, per se.

Thus increasing numbers of offences fall outside the stats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...lice-job.html#

Now it is a fact that the present government, more than even Thatcher, before, have been illegally employing public monies for political ends: massaging statistics by the use of Special Advisers (External Consultants), in order they can claim "Look how well are doing!".

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog-archive/000942.php

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/ma...ime-statistics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3732244.stm

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standa...189516EF8181D7

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...e-figures.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...cs-466456.html

I could inundate you all day long with reports which are opposed to the present government's stated whittering on crime reduction.

[valis]

Originally Posted by Paquadez

I could inundate you all day long with reports which are opposed to the present government's stated whittering on crime reduction.

Nice finds, Paq.....interesting to see it in the national (U.K.) news about cooking the numbers.