[ekim68]

Seems we have parts of the Middle East covered in several threads so maybe this can take in the rest. I recently read where the leaders in Egypt and Saudi Arabia are in their 80's and have been pro United States. Pretty soon they'll have to retire, and will be replaced. Will these countries continue to be pro West when this happens?

[LANMaster]

Should be.

The Saudis have a Monarchy, so the families will probably stay close to the West.

Egypt may be a wee bit different since it is less a Monarchy, and the Islamic influence is huige.
That said, Egypt rakes in $Billions from Western tourism, so perhaps they will remain our friends.

[buffoon]

There's trouble afoot in both Saudi and Egypt.

Saudi is an anachronistic monarchy which will (I agree with LAN) still continue but anyone's guess is as good as mine for how long. Islamist factions within the country are restless (Bin Laden was/is one of their representatives) and a country that imports most of its labor from the poorest countries of the world so that its sons can barge around the desert in luxury 4 x 4s and live in A/C mansions while the working population dwells in shacks, well you want a picture of imminent disaster painted, here it is.

Saudi is not homogeneous. Whereas the royal family has the dimensions (in numbers) of a mid size American or European town and the other Arabs that can claim origin in the "Rub al Kali" have it made as long as they have the ear of one of the royal family members, the whole bunch is vastly outpopulated by the modern wage slaves.

"Saudi" Arabia is a misleading name anyway. All it denotes is that the place is run by the Saud tribe (it used to be run by the Hashemites who now comprise the Jordanian Royal Family).

Only thing that keeps the ibn Sauds in the seat is Oil and the money it brings that can be spread lavishly amongst the population (foreigners excluded). The foreign power that initially most needed the oil and did the most for its exploitation and thus (by default) created the most wealth for the country is the US.

They are also the most hated.

The whole Oil thing brought a country with medieval (and totally archaic) hierarchical structures from a situation of owning nothing but sand to the hi-tech age. Well a lot of money has been invested in sending the royal sons to Harvard and Princeton and Cambridge and Oxfor and MIT and elsewhere, so that the soul of the country may follow the purses filling at a gallop, but that didn't achieve much in way of arriving in modern times.

It is perhaps to be noted that decline of the area set in almost immediately after the Prophet and his followers rode out of the desert. Cultural centers henceforth lay to the North in Damascus, Baghdad and, yep-not far from me-, Cordoba. The seats of the Caliphate (Caliph being the supreme worldly and spiritual leader of Islam society).

The Crusaders were fighting the Turks, not the Arabs, Salah ad-Din was Kurdish (from Iraq). Nobody, but nobody ever saw reason to return to the Arabian desert.

Take, at the same time, Oman. Take what is now "the emirates". Take even Yemen. Traders. merchants, fishermen, pearl farmers, jewellery makers, incense growers, silver smiths, navigators etc. Open to the world, broad minded, highly skilled and educated by multiple cultures. They were the ones who brought Islam to such far away places as Indonesia and the Philippines by sea and Eastern China by land.

From the Rub al Kali came nothing (after the Prophet) and nothing trickled back for centuries. It was just a vast expanse of sand very much in the way of Red Sea and Indian Ocean business with Damascus, Baghdad and places beyond.

Until we needed their oil and initially made some feeble attempt of bringing them into the 20th century by giving them trinkets. Well they never even reached the 13th century.

And by majority they hate us but they hate the US most of all.

This has gotten so long I'll address Egypt some other time.

[buffoon]

Egypt.....

....isn't a wee bit less a monarchy, it's not a monarchy at all. It's a republic but de facto a dictatorship. Everything there to set a Western democrat's teeth on edge (and I don't mean a Dem, although there is no mutual exclusion).

The Brotherhood is loud but wields less influence than its noise would seem to indicate.

Difference to Syria and what used to be Iraq (the other two non-monarchical dictatorships of the region) being that it ended its flirt with commie influenced socialism BEFORE the Soviet Union crumbled. And also aligned itself more with the West (heck its law code is based on the Napoleonic code with Islamic law mixed in).

Traditionally more pro Western it was, unlike Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria never officially colonized although Britain served as protecting power and wielded a lot of clout.

Mubarak is walking a tightrope there. He appeases the people by giving democracy (in which he probably believes quite honestly) and then reduces it by limiting those social groups that he thinks are worthy of democracy.

In his last held general elections he allowed counter candidates (unheard of before) to set themselves up and then had those candidates with the greatest popularity and thus the greatest danger to him banned.

Human rights abuses are frequent (heck, they torture the .... out of people in prison and I don't mean water boarding) and executions are frequent. But he doesn't want to end like Sadat so that's probably the way for him to go.

The humiliation of successive defeats at Israeli and Western hands having been removed by the last war that Egypt waged (actually another defeat but turned into a win by enormously well applied PR thru Sadat) led to the gain of face required for making a peace treaty with Israel.

Sadat deserved that Nobel Prize (well, half of it) even if he had to share it with a chauvinist like Begin. And, as we know, it cost him dearly.

Even with the uncomfortable feelings it leaves (re.: regime techniques) I'd put my bets on Egypt for the future. More than with any other state in the region with the possible exception of the less important Oman and the equally less important emirates.

But I'd walk with caution and keep away from large tourist crowds and resorts. The brotherhood is far from dead.

BTW, Kuweit is a joke. Let the oil diminish to zero and we can send it back to obscurity. Or give it to Baghdad where it originally belongs anyway.

[ekim68]

Thanks for the info buffoon.. I'm never too old to learn...

[ekim68]

Just a little c & p.....

In Turkey, Diplomacy on the Soccer Field

BURSA, Turkey, Oct. 13 -- World Cup soccer fans in the old Ottoman capital of Bursa were under orders to display the best of "Turkish hospitality" to signal a willingness to end a century of animosity, as Armenia's president arrived to watch Wednesday's match between the two national sides.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...html?sec-world

(I have a few questions about the Ottomans, but, later.. )

[Wino]

Originally Posted by ekim68

Just a little c & p.....

In Turkey, Diplomacy on the Soccer Field

BURSA, Turkey, Oct. 13 -- World Cup soccer fans in the old Ottoman capital of Bursa were under orders to display the best of "Turkish hospitality" to signal a willingness to end a century of animosity, as Armenia's president arrived to watch Wednesday's match between the two national sides.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...html?sec-world

(I have a few questions about the Ottomans, but, later.. )

Hope all went well.

I was on a job in Honduras years ago and wanted to make a side trip to El Salvador and quickly found out that I could not - at least not directly from Honduras. They had broken off diplomatic relations over a soccer game. I would have to travel to Guatemala first then to El Salvador. Finally, just blew off the trip and returned to the US.

[buffoon]

Originally Posted by Wino

Hope all went well.

I was on a job in Honduras years ago and wanted to make a side trip to El Salvador and quickly found out that I could not - at least not directly from Honduras. They had broken off diplomatic relations over a soccer game. I would have to travel to Guatemala first then to El Salvador. Finally, just blew off the trip and returned to the US.

I vaguely remember that one from the news. They actually both went to war over it.

That's what I call truly supporting your team.

[ekim68]

What?

Saudis Seek Payments for Any Drop in Oil Revenues

Saudi Arabia is trying to enlist other oil-producing countries to support a provocative idea: if wealthy countries reduce their oil consumption to combat global warming, they should pay compensation to oil producers.

More

[LANMaster]

Thanks Buffoon.

clarification;
I said Egypt was a wee bit different, less a Monarchy. Not a wee bit less a Monarchy. I know Egypt is a Dictatorship masquerading as a Republic. I don't trust Mubarak, but there could be a worse leader there real, real easily.
Just wanted to clarify that a bit.

[buffoon]

Originally Posted by ekim68

What?

Saudis Seek Payments for Any Drop in Oil Revenues

Saudi Arabia is trying to enlist other oil-producing countries to support a provocative idea: if wealthy countries reduce their oil consumption to combat global warming, they should pay compensation to oil producers.

More

Yeah, they've tried that for years. Having nothing else to offer and not having employed the intaken riches to create something they'll one day be back to owning only one of the most inhospitable sand piles of the world.

That's where my previous summary was wrong. Something did come out of the desert after the Prophet. But looks like petroleum is going to be the last.

[buffoon]

Originally Posted by LANMaster

Thanks Buffoon.

clarification;
I said Egypt was a wee bit different, less a Monarchy. Not a wee bit less a Monarchy. I know Egypt is a Dictatorship masquerading as a Republic. I don't trust Mubarak, but there could be a worse leader there real, real easily.
Just wanted to clarify that a bit.

You're right, I twisted it unintentionally (that's what happens when one is too slovenly to read back properly). Sorry.

Mubarak is an evil but a necessary one. I agree we have no alternative. But apart from the ever clamoring Jihadists Egypt never really saw itself as totally Arab only. There's a sense of elitism there in which the average Egyptian sees himself somewhat above the desert dwelling invaders from the East. Guess a coupla 4000 years of history does that for a people.

The place simply has culture and a dang old one at that.

[LANMaster]

No problema

... and what a colorful history at that!

[ekim68]

Embattled Pakistan faces its worst-case scenario

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst-case scenario facing Pakistan -- prolonged insecurity with militants launching bloody attacks on the key pillars of the state -- is no longer just a risk for markets and Western policymakers to fret over.

It is already here.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...59D1OC20091014

[ekim68]

More on Pakistan: IMO, that place is falling apart.....

Pakistan Attacks Show Tighter Militant Links

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A wave of attacks against top security installations over the last several days demonstrated that the Taliban, Al Qaeda and militant groups once nurtured by the government are tightening an alliance aimed at bringing down the Pakistani state, government officials and analysts said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/wo...n.html?_r=2&hp