You need to determine the resolution of your LCD TV, and make sure the PC can match it for the best picture. This article may be informative:
HDTV resolution explained
You'll also need a lot of disk space, around 8 GB/hour for highest quality from what I've seen on the web.
The camcorder should be able to playback directly to the TV in HD. And even if your current PC won't output the files in HD, what hardware will you have in 2-3 years? If HD quality is important, I would get the HD Camcorder now; you can always upgrade your playback equipment, but can't ever re-record something in HD.
You may not be able to play back the 1st birthday in HD now, but in 4 months you absolutely won't be able to record it in HD.
Jerry
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Of course I know all the answers
; I just don't always match the answers to the right questions
Warning -- Windows spoken here. (Rated R for Strong Language and Violence -- When your Windows PC flies through a window, that's violent, right?)
Registry Cleaners are known to cause the above...
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Windows Vista 
