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Future Computer Of 2020

Discussion in 'Random Discussion' started by redposter, Oct 14, 2008.

  1. redposter

    redposter Thread Starter

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Messages:
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  2. lotuseclat79

    lotuseclat79

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2003
    Messages:
    20,583
    Hi redposter,

    I only have a 56k dialup, so can't watch the vid. However, I would suspect that silicon will have seen its time just about expired by 2020, and graphene will have taken over - as it has the chops (properties) for below 11 nanometers as a material - for which there is a lot of research being done by all of the major semiconductor players and academia now.

    Look at Wikipedia for the following:
    CMOS manufacturing
    processes

    * 10 µm
    * 3 µm
    * 1.5 µm
    * 1 µm
    * 800 nm (0.80 µm)
    * 600 nm (0.60 µm)
    * 350 nm (0.35 µm)
    * 250 nm (0.25 µm)
    * 180 nm (0.18 µm)
    * 130 nm (0.13 µm)
    * 90 nm
    * 65 nm
    * 45 nm
    * 32 nm (Double Patterning)
    * 22 nm (End of Planar Bulk CMOS)
    * 16 nm (Transition to Nanoelectronics)
    * 11 nm (Nanoelectronics)

    By conservative ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors) estimates the 16 nm technology is projected to be reached by semiconductor companies in the 2018 timeframe. It has been claimed that transistors cannot be scaled below the size achievable at 16 nm due to quantum tunneling, regardless of the materials used.[1] At that time, the typical half-pitch for a memory cell would be around 16 nm, while the gate length would be even smaller (6-8 nm). However, in complying with its own "Architecture and Silicon Cadence Model",[2] Intel will need to reach a new manufacturing process every two years. This would imply going to 16 nm as early as 2013.

    Follow the links in the right-hand panel from Wikipedia here.

    Also, there is a lot going on about multi-core chips/programming - while it aims to increase performance, it too will reach a size/heat/technology limitation. Some interesting things have to happen in the next 10-12 years regarding software to improve it all around. There are ideas out there, some in the germinal stage which have not yet taken off, so, there is much to do yet.

    -- Tom
     
  3. 2000wolf

    2000wolf Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2007
    Messages:
    115
    That's pretty cool ...
     
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